Development Situation and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Mechanization in Shanxi Province
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摘要:
机械化是促进农业生产力的重要标志,对山西省农业机械化动态变化情况进行分析,挖掘制约其均衡发展的主要因素,对精准制定山西省农业机械化发展策略具有重要意义。在对山西省2004—2019年农业机械化水平发展趋势比较分析的基础上,根据山西省农业机械化发展的特点及现状,运用主成分分析法提取了影响山西省农业机械化水平的2个主成分,并创建了多元线性回归模型。结果表明,除农业机械户年末机构数量和乡村农业机械从业人员数量呈负相关外,机电灌溉面积、机播面积、人均农业生产总值、机械植保面积、机收面积、机耕面积、大中型拖拉机数量、农村居民人均可支配收入、节水灌溉类机械数量与农业机械化水平均呈正相关,对山西省农业机械化发展具有显著的促进作用。因此,提高农机总动力,促进大中型农业机械的使用和农机具合理配套,同时保证农业生产总值、农村居民人均可支配收入的大幅度提高,是提高山西省农业机械化水平的重要举措。
Abstract:Mechanization is an important symbol of promoting agricultural productivity.Dynamic changes of agricultural mechanization in Shanxi Province was analyzed and main factors restricting its balanced development were excavated.It is of great significance to accurately formulate development strategy of agricultural mechanization in Shanxi Province.Based on comparative analysis of development trend of agricultural mechanization level in Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2019, according to characteristics and current situation of agricultural mechanization development in Shanxi Province, two principal components affecting agricultural mechanization level in Shanxi Province were extracted by using principal component analysis method, and a multivariate linear regression model was established.Results showed that, in addition to negative correlation between number of agricultural machinery households at the end of the year and number of rural agricultural machinery employees, electromechanical irrigation area, machine seeding area, per capita agricultural production value, mechanical plant protection area, machine harvesting area, machine farming area, number of large and medium-sized tractors, per capita disposable income of rural residents, and number of water-saving irrigation machinery were all positively correlated with level of agricultural mechanization, it has a significant role in promoting development of agricultural mechanization in Shanxi Province.Therefore, to improve total power of agricultural machinery, promote use of large and medium-sized agricultural machinery and rational matching of agricultural machinery, and at the same time ensure substantial increase of agricultural production value and per capita disposable income of rural residents are important measures to improve level of agricultural mechanization in Shanxi Province.
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表 1 山西省主要农作物机械化作业情况
Table 1. Mechanized operation of main crops in Shanxi Province
主要农作物 播种面积/万hm2 机耕面积/万hm2 机播面积/万hm2 机收面积/万hm2 机耕率/% 机播率/% 机收率/% 综合机械化水平/% 水稻 0.253 0.059 0.050 0.039 23.32 19.76 15.42 19.88 花生 0.518 0.250 0.116 0.076 48.26 22.39 14.67 30.42 油菜 2.290 1.774 1.329 1.256 77.47 58.03 54.85 64.85 大豆 12.914 5.788 4.627 1.579 44.82 35.83 12.23 32.34 马铃薯 16.238 13.871 10.645 8.078 85.42 65.56 49.75 68.76 小麦 54.680 46.818 48.542 47.264 85.62 88.77 86.44 86.81 玉米 171.504 143.226 156.871 114.119 83.51 91.47 66.54 80.81 注:数据来源于《山西统计年鉴2020》《中国农业机械工业年鉴2020》。 表 2 2018—2019年山西省农机服务组织及人员情况
Table 2. Agricultural machinery service organizations and personnel in Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2019
年份 作业服务组织 拥有农机原值
50万元及以上农机专业
合作社拥有农机原值
100万元及以上农机户 农机维修厂
及维修点农机服务
收入/
万元机构数 人数 机构数 人数 机构数 人数 机构数 人数 机构数 人数 机构数 人数 2018 4705 29401 1082 8498 2647 22966 529 5665 510966 656143 5435 13326 835499.9 2019 4563 29039 1110 8999 2582 22731 544 5700 505559 652719 5281 12967 830392.4 注:数据来源于《中国农业机械工业年鉴2019—2020》。 表 3 山西省农业机械化水平及影响因素原始数据
Table 3. Original data of agricultural mechanization operation level and influencing factors in Shanxi Province
年份 Y/% X1/台 X2/万套 X3/万hm2 X4/万hm2 X5/万hm2 X6/万hm2 X7/万hm2 X8/元 X9/(元·人−1) X10 X11 2004 38.92 29862 0.97 208.5 147.5 64.8 58.4 59.9 2738 871 723720 887336 2005 38.65 35928 0.97 204.2 151.8 66.9 56.8 64.9 3082 840 778209 814302 2006 39.01 38654 0.83 202.2 162.5 68.5 58.1 66.4 3420 866 780801 822079 2007 42.00 41379 0.84 205.6 168.5 69.2 60.3 68.8 3975 951 783906 783717 2008 43.62 51703 0.90 218.0 176.5 75.5 70.7 74.6 4480 1074 794640 814622 2009 48.81 62568 0.97 236.7 199.0 78.8 69.6 86.1 4677 1623 959841 859492 2010 54.53 73178 0.96 256.0 218.2 83.8 71.6 93.2 5263 1763 817748 888742 2011 56.66 88872 1.00 252.6 230.7 88.1 74.8 130.7 6225 1998 845645 913777 2012 60.04 97832 1.13 257.3 244.4 93.5 80.7 151.5 7064 2182 867640 947307 2013 63.10 107177 1.38 260.9 251.7 97.9 84.4 170.3 7950 2374 877708 966552 2014 65.66 119046 1.56 268.3 262.2 99.0 86.3 181.1 8809 2473 887077 975638 2015 67.49 130685 1.57 273.7 264.7 100.4 88.6 182.5 9454 2407 892119 983410 2016 67.29 138100 1.58 271.6 260.6 95.8 88.7 182.9 10082 2346 561233 636973 2017 68.06 130789 1.18 273.3 261.7 96.4 86.3 185.5 10788 2456 518282 595571 2018 68.27 98691 1.28 267.0 263.4 98.3 88.9 189.6 11750 2556 510966 468045 2019 68.10 104580 2.00 263.0 258.3 98.7 88.6 191.1 12902 2679 505559 472391 注:数据来源于《山西统计年鉴2020》《中国农业机械工业年鉴2020》《中国统计年鉴2020》。 表 4 相关性分析结果
Table 4. Correlation analysis results
指标 Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 Y 1 X1 0.962 1 X2 0.797 0.758 1 X3 0.977 0.955 0.718 1 X4 0.993 0.963 0.758 0.981 1 X5 0.987 0.953 0.786 0.969 0.994 1 X6 0.983 0.951 0.807 0.955 0.977 0.983 1 X7 0.982 0.950 0.834 0.928 0.969 0.972 0.971 1 X8 0.944 0.870 0.846 0.865 0.911 0.909 0.937 0.955 1 X9 0.990 0.935 0.797 0.972 0.989 0.987 0.971 0.970 0.928 1 X10 −0.356 −0.270 −0.376 −0.238 −0.266 −0.236 −0.333 −0.394 −0.583 −0.300 1 X11 −0.305 −0.183 −0.330 −0.179 −0.228 −0.198 −0.296 −0.329 −0.564 −0.273 0.926 1 表 5 特征值与载荷平方和
Table 5. Characteristic value and load square sum
序号 初始特征值 提取载荷平方和 合计 方差/% 累计/% 合计 方差/% 累计/% 1 8.604 78.214 78.214 8.604 78.214 78.214 2 1.812 16.472 94.685 1.812 16.472 94.685 3 0.338 3.077 97.762 4 0.113 1.027 98.789 5 0.051 0.467 99.256 6 0.042 0.384 99.640 7 0.026 0.234 99.873 8 0.006 0.056 99.929 9 0.005 0.042 99.971 10 0.002 0.017 99.988 11 0.001 0.012 100.000 表 6 主成分特征向量
Table 6. Principal component eigenvector
指标 因子载荷量 特征向量 1 2 1 2 X1 0.952 0.182 0.325 0.135 X2 0.844 −0.055 0.288 −0.041 X3 0.952 0.207 0.325 0.154 X4 0.978 0.168 0.333 0.125 X5 0.976 0.195 0.333 0.145 X6 0.984 0.090 0.335 0.067 X7 0.988 0.035 0.337 0.026 X8 0.970 −0.213 0.331 −0.158 X9 0.981 0.122 0.334 0.091 X10 −0.423 0.881 −0.144 0.654 X11 −0.377 0.906 −0.129 0.673 表 7 综合主成分与各主成分得分
Table 7. Comprehensive principal components and scores of each principal component
年份 Z1 指标排名 Z2 指标排名 Z 指标排名 2004 −4.00 16 −0.66 10 −3.24 16 2005 −3.91 15 −0.70 12 −3.17 15 2006 −3.82 14 −0.60 9 −3.09 14 2007 −3.49 13 −0.69 11 −2.84 13 2008 −2.59 12 −0.28 8 −2.07 12 2009 −1.84 11 0.91 6 −1.29 11 2010 −0.92 10 0.67 7 −0.61 10 2011 −0.11 9 1.02 5 0.09 9 2012 0.79 8 1.42 4 0.85 8 2013 1.67 7 1.64 3 1.57 7 2014 2.35 6 1.81 2 2.14 4 2015 2.67 5 1.93 1 2.41 2 2016 3.20 2 −0.97 13 2.34 3 2017 2.98 4 −1.31 14 2.12 5 2018 3.12 3 −2.01 15 2.11 6 2019 3.89 1 −2.15 16 2.69 1 表 8 模型汇总
Table 8. Model summary
模型 非标准化系数 标准
系数t Sig. 共线性统计量 B 标准
误差容差 VIF 常量 8.843E-16 0.024 0.000 1.000 Z1 0.338 0.008 0.993 40.192 0.000 1.000 1.000 Z2 0.059 0.018 0.080 3.236 0.007 1.000 1.000 R=0.996 R2=0.992 调整R2=0.991 F=813.072 -
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