Regional Agricultural Competitiveness and Spatial-Temporal Evolution in Shandong Province
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摘要:
研究了2013-2019年山东省内16个地级市的农业竞争力,为山东省整体农业竞争力的进一步提升提出建议。建立了山东省区域农业竞争力指标体系,运用因子分析法综合分析和评价各地级市农业竞争力;采用空间插值图,分析山东省农业竞争力的时空演变状况。结果表明,2013-2019年山东省区域农业竞争力整体呈上升趋势;省内各个区域的农业竞争力水平发展极度不平衡;各个区域农业竞争力的核心要素相似性很高;区域农业竞争力空间演变由分散逐渐向集聚格局变化,而且各区域之间有明显的梯度差异,逐渐形成了以区域为代表的优势农业产业带;区域农业竞争力数值与各个城市的空间拓展能力呈高度正相关,农业竞争力数值变化与路径变化保持一致;区域空间拓展能力由东向西逐渐降低。建议制定科学合理的农业政策体系,提升农业现代化水平;优化产业结构,注重农业可持续发展;因地制宜、立足本土优势发展特色农业。
Abstract:Through analyzing data of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2019, agriculture competitiveness of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province was studied, and suggestions were put forward for further improving overall agricultural competitiveness of Shandong Province.Index system of regional agriculture competitiveness in Shandong Province was established, and agriculture competitiveness of prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province was comprehensively analyzed and evaluated by factor analysis method.Spatial and temporal evolution of agriculture competitiveness in Shandong Province was analyzed by spatial interpolation.From 2013 to 2019, overall regional agriculture competitiveness of Shandong Province showed an upward trend.Agriculture competitiveness in various regions of Shandong Province was seriously unbalanced.Core elements of agriculture competitiveness of different cities in Shandong Province were very similar.Spatial evolution of regional agriculture competitiveness in Shandong Province changed from dispersion to agglomeration, and there was a clear gradient difference among different cities, which gradually formed dominant agriculture industrial belt represented by cities.Value of regional agriculture competitiveness in Shandong Province showed a high positive correlation with spatial expansion capacity of each city, and change in agricultural competitiveness was consistent with path change.Regional spatial expansion capacity decreased gradually from east to west in Shandong Province
. Local authority should formulate a scientific and reasonable agricultural policy system to improve level of agriculture modernization.Local authority should optimize industrial structure to focus on sustainable agriculture development.Local authority should develop characteristic agriculture based on local advantages. -
表 1 农业竞争力评价指标体系
Table 1. Evaluation index system of agricultural competitiveness
准则层 指标层 农业产出竞争力 农业总产值X1 林业总产值X2 牧业总产值X3 渔业总产值X4 农林牧渔增加值X5 农业人员平均工资X6 农业现代化竞争力 农作物播种面积X7 单位面积农机总动力X8 单位播种面积化肥施用量X9 单位播种面积农药施用量X10 单位播种面积用电量X11 粮食作物单产产量X12 农村社会发展水平竞争力 农林水事务支出X13 地方财政能力X14 经济发展水平X15 城镇化率X16 数据来源:相应年份山东省统计年鉴及各市统计年鉴。 表 2 解释的总方差
Table 2. Total variance of explains
因子 初始特征值 旋转平方和载入 特征值 方差贡
献率/%累积贡
献率/%特征值 方差贡
献率/%累计贡
献率/%F1 5.96109 37.26 37.26 4.00462 25.03 25.03 F2 3.70746 23.17 60.43 3.96554 24.78 49.81 F3 2.14939 13.43 73.86 3.69665 23.10 72.92 F4 1.20347 7.52 81.38 1.35460 8.47 81.38 数据来源:基于原始数据计算得知。 表 3 旋转后的因子载荷矩阵
Table 3. Factor load matrix after rotation
评价指标 F1 F2 F3 F4 X1 −0.244 0.902 −0.071 0.111 X2 −0.165 0.403 −0.136 0.780 X3 −0.188 0.892 −0.194 −0.071 X4 0.511 0.196 0.718 −0.135 X5 0.035 0.961 0.176 0.064 X6 0.521 −0.024 0.166 0.572 X7 −0.465 0.671 −0.395 −0.056 X8 0.108 0.009 0.871 −0.186 X9 0.003 −0.012 0.884 0.104 X10 0.163 −0.095 0.916 0.104 X11 0.223 −0.133 0.565 0.504 X12 −0.538 0.178 −0.388 0 X13 0.189 0.831 0.129 0.231 X14 0.969 −0.038 0.120 −0.069 X15 0.950 −0.155 0.133 0.024 X16 0.939 −0.089 0.087 0.084 数据来源:基于原始数据计算得知。 表 4 2013—2019年山东省 16个地级市农业竞争力综合得分与排序
Table 4. Comprehensive score and ranking of agricultural competitiveness of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2019
城市 2013年 2015年 2017年 2019年 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 淄博市 −0.229 7 −0.105 8 −0.074 8 −0.180 12 枣庄市 −0.737 16 −0.569 15 −0.600 16 −0.657 16 烟台市 0.893 1 1.279 1 1.485 1 1.343 1 潍坊市 0.162 4 0.422 4 0.509 4 0.638 5 威海市 0.195 3 0.471 3 0.754 2 0.877 2 泰安市 −0.555 12 −0.384 12 −0.256 10 −0.306 14 日照市 −0.644 15 −0.534 14 −0.486 15 −0.398 15 青岛市 0.309 2 0.511 2 0.682 3 0.851 3 临沂市 −0.293 9 −0.053 7 0.089 7 0.200 7 聊城市 −0.605 13 −0.448 13 −0.359 13 0.160 8 济宁市 −0.069 5 0.191 5 0.319 5 0.290 6 济南市 −0.144 6 0.111 6 0.207 6 0.714 4 菏泽市 −0.620 14 −0.527 16 −0.389 14 −0.096 10 东营市 −0.273 8 −0.183 9 −0.124 9 −0.057 9 德州市 −0.524 11 −0.354 11 −0.281 11 −0.141 11 滨州市 −0.472 10 −0.350 10 −0.302 12 −0.284 13 数据来源:基于原始数据计算得知。 -
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