Influence of Agricultural Infrastructure Construction onAgricultural Output in Shandong Province
-
摘要:
以山东省16个地市2006-2020年的面板数据为样本,用双向固定效应模型分析了各类农业基础设施对全省及东中西部地区的影响。结果表明:从山东省来看,交通基础设施对农业产出具有明显的正向作用;水利基础设施对农业产出无明显影响;电力基础设施对农业产出具有负向作用。从省内各地区来看,交通基础设施对东中西部都有明显的正向作用;水利基础设施对西部具有显著的积极影响,对东西部具有明显的负向作用;电力基础设施对东中部有具有负向影响,对西部无明显影响。各地区经济发展的不平衡性是导致各要素对农业产出产生不同影响的直接原因,应因地制宜加大能够促进农业产出的要素投入,确保投入效益的最大化。
Abstract:Based on panel data of 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2020, impact of various agricultural infrastructure on whole province, east, central and western regions, with a two-way fixed effect model, was analyzed.Results showed that, from perspective of Shandong Province, transportation infrastructure had an obvious positive effect on agricultural output.Water conservancy infrastructure had no obvious impact on agricultural output in Shandong Province.Power infrastructure had a negative effect on agricultural output in Shandong Province.From a regional perspective, transportation infrastructure had an obvious positive effect on the east, central and western regions.Water conservancy infrastructure had a significant positive impact on the west and a significant negative impact on the east and west.Power infrastructure had a negative impact on the east and middle, but no significant impact on the west.Imbalance of regional economic development was direct reason for different impact of various factors on agricultural output.Therefore, input of factors that can promote agricultural output according to local conditions should be increased to ensure the maximization of input benefits.
-
表 1 变量定义及说明
Table 1. Definition and description of variables
变量类型 变量名称 变量符号 计算方法 单位 被解释变量 农业产出 Y 第一产业增加值 ×102亿元 解释变量 交通基础设施 X1 公路总里程 万km 水利基础设施 X2 农业灌溉面积 ×10万hm2 电力基础设施 X3 农村用电量 ×10亿kW·h 控制变量 农业机械 X4 农业机械总动力 ×102万kW 化肥施用量 X5 化肥施用量(折纯量) ×10万t 数据来源:2006-2020年《山东省统计年鉴》。 表 2 变量描述性统计
Table 2. Descriptive statistics of variables
变量名 N Mean Sd Min Max LnY 240 1.763 0.721 0.530 3.470 LnX1 240 1.500 0.608 0.560 3.090 LnX2 240 3.156 1.498 0.990 6.460 LnX3 240 2.789 2.072 0.380 1.051 LnX4 240 7.000 3.545 0.480 15.23 LnX5 240 2.859 1.393 0.790 6.150 数据来源:2006-2020年《山东省统计年鉴》。 表 3 山东省模型估计的结果
Table 3. Results of model estimation in Shandong Province
变量名 模型(Ⅰ) 模型(Ⅱ) 模型(Ⅲ) LnY LnY LnY LnX1 0.587***
(0.0466)0.559***
(0.0470)0.517***
(0.0464)LnX2 −0.0652*
(0.0274)−0.0589*
(0.0280)−0.0323
(0.0268)LnX3 −0.0196*
(0.00811)−0.0197*
(0.00799)−0.0205**
(0.00761)LnX4 0.00856
(0.00798)0.00964
(0.00749)LnX5 −0.151***
((0.0282)常数 0.895***
(0.0985)0.777***
(0.122)1.253***
(0.145)样本数量 240 240 240 城市数量 16 16 16 拟合度检验 0.914 0.914 0.924 code FE code FE code FE code FE year FE year FE year FE year FE 注:括号内数字是标准误差; ***代表P<0.01, **代表P<0.05, *代表P<0.1,下同。 表 4 模型对比
Table 4. Model comparison
变量名 模型(1) 模型(2) 模型(3) 模型(4) 模型(5) OLS FE-robust FE-TW RE-robust BE LnX1 0.764***
(0.0737)1.007***
(0.164)0.517***
(0.113)1.045***
(0.148)0.319
(0.351)LnX2 −0.0141**
(0.0544)0.0948
(0.0987)−0.0323
(0.0495)0.0909
(0.0993)−0.0355
(0.227)LnX3 0.0664***
(0.0178)−0.0397
(0.0206)−0.0205*
(0.00949)−0.0317
(0.0180)0.0182
(0.0700)LnX4 0.0379*
(0.0166)0.0129
(0.00683)0.00964
(0.0108)0.0138
(0.00756)0.0729
(0.00744)LnX5 0.119*
(0.0508)−0.265**
(0.0893)−0.151*
(0.0665)−0.220**
(0.0674)0.468
(0.235)常数 0.232***
(0.0587)0.681***
(0.438)1.692***
(0.328)0.477
(0.315)0.491
(0.275)样本数量 240 240 240 240 240 城市数量 16 16 16 16 16 拟合度检验 0.706 0.824 0.929 — 0.736 表 5 分地区模型估计结果
Table 5. Results of regional model estimation
变量名 模型(1) 模型(2) 模型(3) 东部地区 中部地区 西部地区 LnX1 0.405***
(0.0781)0.925***
(0.135)0.180***
(0.0372)LnX2 −0.323***
(0.0917)0.306**
(0.103)−0.0903***
(0.0188)LnX3 −0.0138*
(0.00926)−0.0876 **
(0.0283)0.0936
(0.0122)LnX4 −0.00306
(0.0176)−0.00979**
(0.0222)0.00474
(0.00433)LnX5 −0.275***
(0.0613)−0.0476
(0.0758)−0.00468
(0.0169)常数 2.657***
(0.353)−0.357***
(0.437)2.186***
(0.176)样本数量 90 90 60 城市数量 6 6 4 拟合度检验 0.910 0.937 0.993 code FE code FE code FE code FE year FE year FE year FE year FE -
[1] 范传鸿.农业基础设施建设:基于公共产品供给的分析[J].商业研究,2009(7):191-193. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-148X.2009.07.056 [2] 王敏,田国双.我国农业基础设施建设对农业经济增长的影响分析[J].东北农业大学学报(社会科学版),2011,9(6):22-25.WANG Min,TIAN Guoshuang.An impact analysis of Chinese agricultural infrastructure to the economic growth[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2011,9(6):22-25. [3] 曹小曙,郭建忠,马卫.陆路交通基础设施对农业产出的空间溢出效应[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(4):1-7.CAO Xiaoshu,GUO Jianzhong,MA Wei.Spatial spillover effects of land transport infrastructure on agricultural output across China[J].Areal Research and Development,2018,37(4):1-7. [4] 刘玉婷,刘晓利.农业基础设施投资溢出效应分析:以湖北省为例[J].福建农业学报,2018,33(5):543-549.LIU Yuting,LIU Xiaoli.Spillover effect of agricultural infrastructure investment:a case study in Hubei[J].Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2018,33(5):543-549. [5] 余国新,张建宏.水利基础设施建设与农业经济增长:基于新疆的实证分析[J].乡镇经济,2008(6):75-79.YU Xinguo,ZHANG Jianghong.The construction of water conservancy infrastructure agricultural economic growth:an empirical analysis in Xinjiang[J].Rural Economy,2008(6):75-79. [6] 谢小蓉,李雪.农业基础设施与粮食生产能力的实证研究:吉林省例证(1989—2012年)[J].学术研究,2014(7):91- 97,160.XIE Xiaorong,LI Xue.A research with substantial evidences on agricultural infrastructures and grain production force,taking Jilin province (1989-2012) as the case[J].Academic Research,2014(7):91- 97,160. [7] 李燕,成德宁,郑鹏.农业基础设施对农业产出的影响及其区域差异:基于2004年—2013年中国232个地级市的分析[J].广东财经大学学报,2017,32(6):106-113.LI Yan,CHENG Dening,ZHENG Peng.Effect of agricultural infrastructure on agricultural output:an analysis based on the panel data of 232 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2013[J].Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics,2017,32(6):106-113. [8] 刘芳,刘颖,高奇正,等.交通基础设施、农业机械化与我国水稻生产[J].农业现代化研究,2020,41(4):578-586.LIU Fang,LIU Ying,GAO Qizheng,et al.Transportation infrastructure,agricultural mechanization,and rice production in China[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2020,41(4):578-586. [9] 卓乐.农业基础设施对粮食增产的作用机理及效应分析[J].求索,2021(4):125-132. doi: 10.16059/j.cnki.cn43-1008/c.2021.04.015 [10] 陈政,崔若男,周天予,等.河北省交通与农业现代化耦合协调性研究[J].经济地理,2020,40(3):152-159. doi: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2020.03.017CHEN Zheng,CUI Ruonan,ZHOU Tianyu,et al.Relationship of coupling coordination between transportation and agricultural modernization in Hebei province[J].Economic Geography,2020,40(3):152-159. doi: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2020.03.017 [11] 邓晓兰,鄢伟波.农村基础设施对农业全要素生产率的影响研究[J].财贸研究,2018,29(4):36-45.DENG Xiaolan,YAN Weibo.Spillover effects of rural infrastructure on agricultural total factor productivity in China[J].Finance and Trade Research,2018,29(4):36-45. [12] 张亦弛,代瑞熙.农村基础设施对农业经济增长的影响:基于全国省级面板数据的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2018(3):90-99.ZHANG Yichi,DAI Ruixi.Influenceof rural infrastructure on the economic growth of agriculture:an empirical analysis based on the national provincial panel data[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2018(3):90-99. [13] 赖红兵,鲁杏.我国农业现代化发展与农村水利建设关系的研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2020,41(2):66-74.LAI Hongbing,LU Xing.Study on the realationship between agricultural modenzation and rural water conservancy constrction in China[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2020,41(2):66-74. [14] 张东敏,杨佳,刘座铭.异质性环境政策对企业技术创新能力影响实证分析:基于双向固定效应模型[J].商业研究,2021(4):68-74.ZHANG Dongmin,YANG Jia,LIU Zuoming.An empirical analysis of the impact of heterogeneous environmental policies on technological innovation capability of enterprises:based on the two-way fixed effect model[J].Commercial Research,2021(4):68-74.
计量
- 文章访问数: 36
- HTML全文浏览量: 10
- PDF下载量: 7
- 被引次数: 0