Regional Agricultural Competitiveness of Shandong Province from Perspective of Combination Weighting
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摘要:
基于山东省2013-2019年数据,分析山东省内16个地级市的农业竞争力,为山东省整体农业竞争力进一步提升提出建议。建立了山东省区域农业竞争力指标体系,采用3种客观赋权方法进行单一赋权,构建组合赋权模型,对山东省各地级市农业竞争力进行综合分析和评价,并根据组合权重得分进行排序。结果表明:渔业总产值、单位面积农机总动力和地方财政能力是影响山东省区域农业竞争力的重要指标因素;山东省区域农业竞争力发展呈现“M”曲线先升再降,整体水平呈现上升趋势,具备较大的发展潜力;山东省各个城市之间农业竞争力存在较大的梯度差异,水平较高地区集中于沿海及半岛地区,水平较低的基本处于省边际地区。建议进一步优化渔业产业结构,强化渔业技术创新、加大农业科技投入力度和加强地方财政能力建设。
Abstract:Based on data of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2019, agricultural competitiveness of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province was analyzed and studied, and suggestions were put forward for further improving overall agricultural competitiveness of Shandong Province.The index system of regional agricultural competitiveness in Shandong Province was established.Three objective weighting methods were used for single weighting and a combined weighting model was constructed.Agricultural competitiveness of prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province was comprehensively analyzed and evaluated, and ranked according to combined weight score.Total output value of fishery, total power of agricultural machinery per unit area, and local financial capacity were critical index factors affecting regional agricultural competitiveness in Shandong Province.Development of regional agricultural competitiveness in Shandong Province showed a "M" curve, rising first and then falling, and overall level showed a rising trend with great development potential.There was a great gradient difference in agricultural competitiveness among cities in Shandong Province.Areas with higher agricultural competitiveness were concentrated in coastal and peninsula areas, while areas with lower agricultural competitiveness were located in provincial marginal areas.It was suggested to further optimize structure of fishery industry, strengthen innovation of fishery technology, increase investment in agricultural science and technology and strengthen construction of local financial capacity.
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表 1 农业竞争力评价指标体系
Table 1. Evaluation index system of agricultural competitiveness
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标 农业竞争力评价指标体系 农业产出竞争力 农业总产值X1 林业总产值X2 牧业总产值X3 渔业总产值X4 农林牧渔增加值X5 农业人员平均工资X6 农业现代化竞争力 农作物播种面积X7 单位面积农机总动力X8 单位播种面积化肥施用量X9 单位播种面积农药施用量X10 单位播种面积用电量X11 粮食作物单产产量X12 农村社会发展水平
竞争力农林水事务支出X13 地方财政能力X14 经济发展水平X15 城镇化率X16 表 2 指标单一赋权权重及组合权重(2013)
Table 2. Index single weight and combinasion weight(2013)
序号 指标层 单一赋权权重 组合权重 标准离差权重 熵权 灰色权重 1 X1 0.0713 0.0608 0.0635 0.0713 2 X2 0.0639 0.0674 0.0643 0.0674 3 X3 0.0637 0.0751 0.0628 0.0751 4 X4 0.0743 0.1567 0.0585 0.1567 5 X5 0.0736 0.0607 0.0622 0.0736 6 X6 0.0687 0.0502 0.0639 0.0687 7 X7 0.0692 0.0804 0.0646 0.0804 8 X8 0.0615 0.1056 0.0590 0.1056 9 X9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0599 0.0599 10 X10 0.0614 0.0252 0.0690 0.0690 11 X11 0.0694 0.0300 0.0696 0.0696 12 X12 0.0611 0.0581 0.0664 0.0664 13 X13 0.0586 0.0480 0.0603 0.0603 14 X14 0.0724 0.0768 0.0579 0.0768 15 X15 0.0640 0.0582 0.0588 0.0640 16 X16 0.0669 0.0468 0.0592 0.0669 表 3 指标单一赋权权重及组合权重(2015)
Table 3. Index single weight and combinasion weight(2015)
序号 指标层 单一赋权权重 组合权重 标准离差权重 熵权 灰色权重 1 X1 0.0707 0.0594 0.0645 0.0707 2 X2 0.0635 0.0689 0.0635 0.0689 3 X3 0.0634 0.0759 0.0679 0.0759 4 X4 0.0727 0.1474 0.0623 0.1474 5 X5 0.0730 0.0590 0.0653 0.0730 6 X6 0.0714 0.0441 0.0562 0.0714 7 X7 0.0683 0.0760 0.0662 0.0760 8 X8 0.0618 0.1261 0.0627 0.1261 9 X9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0624 0.0624 10 X10 0.0603 0.0241 0.0581 0.0603 11 X11 0.0636 0.0222 0.0563 0.0636 12 X12 0.0670 0.0708 0.0641 0.0708 13 X13 0.0635 0.0561 0.0659 0.0659 14 X14 0.0691 0.0701 0.0622 0.0701 15 X15 0.0676 0.0579 0.0614 0.0676 16 X16 0.0639 0.0418 0.0610 0.0639 表 4 指标单一赋权权重及组合权重(2017)
Table 4. Index single weight and combinasion weight(2017)
序号 指标层 单一赋权权重 组合权重 标准离差权重 熵权 灰色权重 1 X1 0.0718 0.0634 0.0641 0.0718 2 X2 0.0611 0.0806 0.0675 0.0806 3 X3 0.0673 0.0839 0.0666 0.0839 4 X4 0.0724 0.1449 0.0633 0.1449 5 X5 0.0751 0.0763 0.0657 0.0763 6 X6 0.0638 0.0421 0.0584 0.0638 7 X7 0.0669 0.0850 0.0698 0.0850 8 X8 0.0542 0.0901 0.0648 0.0901 9 X9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0678 0.0678 10 X10 0.0649 0.0299 0.0567 0.0649 11 X11 0.0614 0.0218 0.0548 0.0614 12 X12 0.0601 0.0303 0.0618 0.0618 13 X13 0.0713 0.0537 0.0636 0.0713 14 X14 0.0694 0.0825 0.0592 0.0825 15 X15 0.0735 0.0677 0.0575 0.0735 16 X16 0.0668 0.0478 0.0586 0.0668 表 5 指标单一赋权权重及组合权重(2019)
Table 5. Index single weight and combinasion weight(2019)
序号 指标层 单一赋权权重 组合权重 标准离差权重 熵权 灰色权重 1 X1 0.0754 0.0578 0.0608 0.0754 2 X2 0.0603 0.0758 0.0636 0.0758 3 X3 0.0700 0.0705 0.0625 0.0705 4 X4 0.0704 0.1376 0.0635 0.1376 5 X5 0.0732 0.0669 0.0620 0.0732 6 X6 0.0586 0.0799 0.0634 0.0799 7 X7 0.0653 0.0787 0.0626 0.0787 8 X8 0.0672 0.0947 0.0633 0.0947 9 X9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0630 0.0630 10 X10 0.0673 0.0276 0.0617 0.0673 11 X11 0.0561 0.0176 0.0614 0.0614 12 X12 0.0588 0.0231 0.0611 0.0611 13 X13 0.0625 0.0569 0.0611 0.0625 14 X14 0.0673 0.0734 0.0632 0.0734 15 X15 0.0776 0.0906 0.0634 0.0906 16 X16 0.0699 0.0489 0.0633 0.0699 表 6 山东省各地市竞争力得分及排名(2013)
Table 6. Score and ranking of competitiveness in Shandong Province(2013)
序号 地区 标准离差法 熵权法 基于因子分析的灰色关联 综合评价 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 1 济南市 0.4759 6 0.3838 8 0.4509 6 0.5018 7 2 青岛市 0.6482 1 0.5964 2 0.6024 1 0.7365 1 3 淄博市 0.3424 14 0.2969 12 0.3239 14 0.3673 14 4 枣庄市 0.2406 16 0.1717 16 0.2369 15 0.2534 16 5 东营市 0.3657 12 0.2977 11 0.3388 13 0.3948 12 6 烟台市 0.5720 2 0.6360 1 0.5189 4 0.7011 2 7 潍坊市 0.5624 4 0.5100 3 0.5348 3 0.6227 4 8 济宁市 0.5692 3 0.5053 4 0.5439 2 0.6283 3 9 泰安市 0.4284 9 0.3360 9 0.4188 8 0.4542 9 10 威海市 0.4354 8 0.4917 5 0.3940 9 0.5670 5 11 日照市 0.2408 15 0.2056 15 0.2319 16 0.2782 15 12 临沂市 0.4649 7 0.3867 7 0.4509 7 0.4951 8 13 德州市 0.4799 5 0.4229 6 0.4719 5 0.5320 6 14 聊城市 0.3657 11 0.2958 13 0.3563 11 0.3986 11 15 滨州市 0.3977 10 0.3301 10 0.3823 10 0.4375 10 16 菏泽市 0.3488 13 0.2915 14 0.3428 12 0.3833 13 方差 0.0137 0.0177 0.0115 0.0199 表 7 山东省各地市竞争力得分及排名(2015)
Table 7. Score and ranking of competitiveness in Shandong Province(2015)
序号 地区 标准离差法 熵权法 基于因子分析的灰色关联 综合评价 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 1 济南市 0.4833 5 0.3750 8 0.4519 6 0.4989 8 2 青岛市 0.5911 1 0.5323 2 0.5521 1 0.6584 2 3 淄博市 0.3671 13 0.3067 12 0.3371 12 0.3922 12 4 枣庄市 0.2439 15 0.1647 16 0.2229 15 0.2486 16 5 东营市 0.3706 12 0.2828 14 0.3344 13 0.3920 13 6 烟台市 0.5776 2 0.6344 1 0.5341 3 0.7128 1 7 潍坊市 0.5533 4 0.4918 5 0.5247 4 0.6058 4 8 济宁市 0.5758 3 0.5006 4 0.5385 2 0.6244 3 9 泰安市 0.4414 9 0.3403 9 0.4078 9 0.4592 9 10 威海市 0.4552 8 0.5079 3 0.4143 8 0.5973 5 11 日照市 0.2376 16 0.1807 15 0.2136 16 0.2681 15 12 临沂市 0.4824 6 0.3884 7 0.4502 7 0.5055 7 13 德州市 0.4785 7 0.4252 6 0.4546 5 0.5262 6 14 聊城市 0.3804 11 0.3097 11 0.3592 11 0.4075 11 15 滨州市 0.4045 10 0.3299 10 0.3747 10 0.4369 10 16 菏泽市 0.3495 14 0.2854 13 0.3327 14 0.3733 14 方差 0.0121 0.0168 0.011 0 0.0182 表 8 山东省各地市竞争力得分及排名(2017)
Table 8. Score and ranking of competitiveness in Shandong Province(2017)
序号 地区 标准离差法 熵权法 基于因子分析的灰色关联 综合评价 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 1 济南市 0.5136 6 0.4262 7 0.4640 6 0.5491 7 2 青岛市 0.6325 1 0.5787 2 0.5671 1 0.7123 1 3 淄博市 0.3932 14 0.3122 14 0.3599 13 0.4192 14 4 枣庄市 0.2642 16 0.1773 16 0.2416 16 0.2764 16 5 东营市 0.3949 13 0.3218 13 0.3489 14 0.4332 13 6 烟台市 0.5833 3 0.6343 1 0.5341 3 0.7031 2 7 潍坊市 0.5791 4 0.5295 3 0.5337 4 0.6435 4 8 济宁市 0.5841 2 0.5162 4 0.5432 2 0.6465 3 9 泰安市 0.4404 8 0.3405 9 0.4091 8 0.4716 9 10 威海市 0.4343 9 0.4816 5 0.3946 9 0.5532 6 11 日照市 0.2791 15 0.2235 15 0.2584 15 0.3189 15 12 临沂市 0.5157 5 0.4405 6 0.4870 5 0.5649 5 13 德州市 0.4803 7 0.4127 8 0.4561 7 0.5331 8 14 聊城市 0.4120 10 0.3284 12 0.3842 11 0.4452 12 15 滨州市 0.4100 12 0.3348 10 0.3761 12 0.4536 10 16 菏泽市 0.4107 11 0.3333 11 0.3874 10 0.4457 11 方差 0.0113 0.0159 0.0095 0.0160 表 9 山东省各地市竞争力得分及排名(2019)
Table 9. Score and ranking of competitiveness in Shandong Province(2019)
序号 地区 标准离差法 熵权法 基于因子分析的灰色关联 综合评价 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 得分 排名 1 济南市 0.5901 2 0.5178 3 0.5558 2 0.6484 3 2 青岛市 0.6216 1 0.5673 2 0.5727 1 0.7015 1 3 淄博市 0.2835 14 0.2304 14 0.2656 14 0.3076 15 4 枣庄市 0.1983 16 0.1188 16 0.1902 16 0.2107 16 5 东营市 0.3794 10 0.3276 9 0.3565 11 0.4311 10 6 烟台市 0.5726 3 0.5970 1 0.5261 3 0.6819 2 7 潍坊市 0.5494 4 0.4787 4 0.5059 4 0.5992 4 8 济宁市 0.5167 5 0.4246 6 0.4805 5 0.5610 5 9 泰安市 0.3667 12 0.2596 13 0.3478 12 0.3904 13 10 威海市 0.3976 9 0.4743 5 0.3712 9 0.5206 6 11 日照市 0.2746 15 0.2223 15 0.2652 15 0.3191 14 12 临沂市 0.4737 6 0.3935 7 0.4509 7 0.5150 8 13 德州市 0.4713 7 0.3812 8 0.4529 6 0.5170 7 14 聊城市 0.3786 11 0.3114 11 0.3592 10 0.4225 11 15 滨州市 0.3521 13 0.2829 12 0.3380 13 0.3966 12 16 菏泽市 0.4206 8 0.3222 10 0.4019 8 0.4486 9 方差 0.0149 0.0180 0.0123 0.0195 -
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