Law and Causes of Pig Price Fluctuation in Qingdao City

To explore development trend of Qingdao pig industry, seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering were used to analyze characteristics of pig price fluctuations in Qingdao in the past ten years． A multiple regression model and a first-order AR（1）model were also used to analyze empirically influence of two major factors, supply and demand, on fluctuation of pig prices and degree of influence． Results showed that pig price fluctuation in Qingdao was obviously cyclical and seasonal, and was mainly influenced by supply side, while pig price in Qingdao would rebound in the second half of 2022, but overall magnitude was not too large, and pig price would return to normal and continue to rise in next few years．