Identification of Dominant Factors in Huzhou's Carbon Emissions Based on Extended STIRPAT Model

Based on main energy consumption data of Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, from 2007 to 2020, emission factor method was used to estimate carbon emissions of main energy sources, and extended STIRPAT model was used to construct a prediction model for carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huzhou City, and population size, per capita GDP, energy structure, energy consumption per unit of output, proportion of added value of agriculture to city's gross domestic product, total power of agricultural machinery, and industrial structure were used as factors to analyze main reasons affecting carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huzhou City．The main reasons affecting energy consumption carbon emission in Huzhou were analyzed as factors．Results showed that overall energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City showed a lowering-rising-lowering trend; carbon emission model fit R² was 0.812, the F-test significance was less than 0.01, and verification found that average relative error of model was 3.59%, which indicated that the model could better respond to characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City．Further analysis showed that dominant factors affecting carbon emissions in Huzhou City were energy consumption structure, energy consumption per unit of output value, proportion of added value of agriculture to city's gross domestic product, total power of agricultural machinery and industrial structure, of which influence indexes of above mentioned major factors on carbon emissions from energy consumption in Huzhou City were 0.24%, −0.16%, −0.32%, −0.62%, and −0.45%．