Oilseeds rape phenology and climate change trend in Jianghan Region

Based on winter oilseeds rape phenological observation data from three agricultural meteorological experimental stations in Yicheng City, Honghu City, and Jiangxia District of Wuhan City in the Jianghan Region from 1991 to 2021, regression analysis, significance testing, and other methods were used to statistically analyze historical changes in oilseeds rape phenology, correlation between climate factors and phenology, and degree of response in the Jianghan Region．Future changes in growth period of winter oilseeds rape under background of climate warming were also discussed．Results showed that winter oilseeds rape sowing time in Jianghan Region was concentrated from late September to mid October, and maturity time was mainly from early to mid May．Average days of growth period was 219 days, which decreased significantly by 5.2 days every 10 years．Number of days during growth period from bud to flowering and from flowering to maturity was significantly negatively correlated with temperature factors, but not significantly correlated with precipitation．Number of growth days decreases by 4.2 days for every 1 °C increase in maximum temperature．During entire growth period of oilseeds rape, temperature in Jianghan Region showed a significant upward trend, with the lowest temperature rising faster than average temperature and highest temperature, increasing by 0.2 to 0.5 °C every 10 years．Based on historical climate change rates and correlation between various growth intervals and meteorological factors, it was inferred that flowering and maturity periods in Jianghan Region in 2050 will be 3.3 days and 2.8 days earlier than the average in 2021．