Operating costs structure and sensitivity analysis for bio-natural gas projects based on wet fermentation CSTR process

Driven by "dual carbon" strategic, industrialization process of bio-natural gas, as an important pathway for efficient conversion and clean utilization of biomass energy, has accelerated significantly．A comprehensive review of mainstream biogas production technologies was conducted．A multidimensional full life cycle cost estimation model was developed based on literature research and expert consultation, and empirical analysis was performed using typical project cases．Research results indicated that bio-natural gas production cost exhibited significant structural characteristics, with raw material costs（accounting for 45%）and energy costs（accounting for 21%）forming core cost components．After deducting income from organic fertilizer by-products, comprehensive cost per unit product was 3.03 yuan/m³, which was 32%～66% higher than conventional natural gas station price．Sensitivity analysis quantitatively identified three key influencing factors: construction investment, organic fertilizer market prices, and raw material procurement price．Model validation showed that through intensive raw material collection and storage, increased domestic equipment localization level, and optimized project scale, overall production costs could be reduced by 15%～25%．Technology-economic evaluation system was constructed to provide a systematic basis for enhancing economic competitiveness of bio-natural gas projects, and offering practical guidance value for promoting industrial scale development．