Yield Prediction Method of Litchi in Zengcheng of Guangdong Province

Based on Litchi yield data and meteorological data from 1999 to 2018 in Zengcheng District，Guangzhou City，Guangdong Province，a study on prediction method of Litchi yield in Zengcheng was carried out.Litchi yield was decomposed into trend yield，meteorological-physiological yield and random noise（usually ignored）.Trend yield was predicted by means of linear moving average simulation and harmonic weight method.Key meteorological factors which affected Litchi meteorological physiological yield were analyzed，and linear regression equation was established.Results showed that average precision of Litchi yield prediction over the years was 90.52%，average precision could meet daily service demand.Research results could provide reference for government to implement rural revitalization strategy，promote cultivation of strategic pillar industry clusters，promote development of Litchi brand industry and increase income of Litchi growers.