中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

基于贝叶斯神经网络的农田分区灌溉需水量模拟

Simulation of Water Demand for Farmland Subarea Irrigation Based on Bayesian Neural Network

  • 摘要: 针对农田分区灌溉需水量模拟过程中普遍存在的求解过程易陷入局部最小化、出现过度拟合,以及过度依赖历史用水数据,导致最终模拟结果存在显著误差的问题,研究基于贝叶斯神经网络的农田分区灌溉需水量模拟分析方法。以前一周需水量、年内月需水量占比、日内温度上限值及日降雨量为指标,通过聚类分析获取指标数据均值,对农田分区灌溉历史用水的样本数据进行聚类分析。构建贝叶斯神经网络模型,将指标数据均值输入模型,根据BP神经网络原理与贝叶斯规则训练指标数据,然后输出农田分区灌溉需水量模拟结果。试验结果显示数据聚类结果中数据间关联度高于95%,数据拟合效果较好,模拟需水量时具有更高的精度与稳定性。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at problem that common solution process in simulation process of farmland partitioned irrigation water demand was prone to fall into local minimization, excessive fitting, and excessive dependence on historical water use data, resulting in significant errors in final simulation results, a simulation analysis method of farmland partitioned irrigation water demand based on Bayesian neural network was studied. Water demand in previous week, proportion of monthly water demand in the year, upper limit of daily temperature and daily rainfall were taken as indicators, and average value of indicator data was obtained through cluster analysis, and sample data of historical water use for farmland subarea irrigation were clustered. Bayesian neural network model was built. Average value of index data was input into model, and indicator data were trained according to BP neural network principle and Bayesian rule, at last, simulation results of irrigation water demand of farmland were output. Experimental results showed that correlation between data in data clustering results was higher than 95%, data fitting effect was good, and simulation of water demand had higher accuracy and stability.

     

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