中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

甘肃省苹果“保险+期货”价格风险管理研究

Price risk management of apple "insurance+futures" in Gansu Province

  • 摘要: 采用EGARCH模型实证分析了2017—2021年甘肃省苹果价格波动特征,结果表明,甘肃省苹果价格序列呈现“尖峰厚尾”特征,当期苹果价格上涨对下期市价波动的影响更大。甘肃省通过建立苹果“保险+期货”价格风险管理机制增强了苹果产业链规避价格风险的能力,为农户防范苹果价格波动风险构筑了屏障。甘肃省全面推行苹果“保险+期货”还存在制约因素:资金不足,补贴依赖性强,期货基差风险、期货对冲风险影响保险效果。全面推广苹果“保险+期货”业务需要进一步增加政府资金支持、拓宽保险资金筹集渠道、创新保单设计和场外期权产品、加强农户的金融知识培训、优化参与主体的协同机制及加强新一代信息技术应用。

     

    Abstract: The EGARCH model was used to empirically analyze characteristics of price fluctuation of Gansu apples from 2017 to 2021.It was found that price sequence of Gansu apples presented a "peak and thick tail" feature.When current apple price rised, impact on next period's market price fluctuation was greater.Gansu has strengthened ability of apple industry chain to avoid price risk by promoting "insurance+futures" price risk management mechanism of apple, and has built a barrier for fruit farmers to prevent risk of apple price fluctuation.There were still constraints to full implementation of apple's "insurance+futures" in Gansu: insufficient funds, strong dependence on subsidies, futures basis risk and futures hedging risk affecting insurance effect.Comprehensive promotion of apple's "insurance+futures" business needs to further increase government's financial support, broaden insurance fund raising channels, innovate policy design and over-the-counter option products, strengthen financial knowledge training of fruit farmers, optimize coordination mechanism of participants, and strengthen application of new generation information technology.

     

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