中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

基于MaxEnt模型的湖南省竹叶花椒潜在适宜区划分

Potential suitable area division of Zanthoxylum armatum in Hunan Province based on MaxEnt model

  • 摘要: 探讨影响湖南省竹叶花椒分布的主导气候因子,模拟其潜在适宜分布区,为竹叶花椒的资源调查、保护和种植提供合理依据。根据竹叶花椒在湖南省的分布和环境因子数据,运用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测当前气候模式及3种未来气候情景模式下的4个时期竹叶花椒在湖南省潜在适宜区的变化情况,综合分析影响湖南省竹叶花椒分布的主要环境因子及其适宜区范围。结果表明,湖南省竹叶花椒潜在适宜区主要分布在湘西北地区,总适宜区面积约10.34万km2,高适宜区约1.25万km2。降水和温度是影响竹叶花椒分布的主要环境因子,其中降水季节性变化和最冷季度降水量对其影响最大。在3种不同气候情景模式下,湖南省竹叶花椒的适宜区面积在未来气候温室气体低排放情景(SSP126)下有缩减,中排量情景(SSP245)和高排量情景(SSP585)下适宜区面积比例基本保持不变;而高适宜区面积比例的变化情况恰恰相反,在低排量情景下,高适宜区面积增加,中排量情景和高排量情景下面积减少。

     

    Abstract: Dominant climatic factors affecting distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in Hunan Province were explored, its potential suitable distribution areas were simulated, and a reasonable basis for resource investigation, protection, and cultivation of Zanthoxylum armatum was provided.Based on distribution points and environmental factors of Zanthoxylum armatum in Hunan Province, MaxEnt model was used to predict potential changes of Zanthoxylum armatum in suitable areas of Hunan Province in 4 periods under current climate model and 3 future climate change models, and main environmental factors affecting distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum in Hunan Province and their suitable areas were comprehensively analyzed.Results showed that potential suitable area of Zanthoxylum armatum in Hunan Province was mainly distributed in northwest Hunan, with a total suitable area of 103400 km2 and a high suitable area of12500 km2.Precipitation and temperature were main environmental factors that affect distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum , and seasonal variation of precipitation an precipitation in the coldest quarter had the greatest influence on distribution of Zanthoxylum armatum.Under three different climate change models, the area of suitable area of Zanthoxylum armatum in Hunan Province decreased under the low emission scenario, and proportion of suitable area remained basically unchanged under medium emission scenario and high emission scenario, while proportion of high emission scenario changed exactly the opposite, in low emission scenario, area of high emission scenario increased, and area of medium emission scenario and high emission scenario decreased.

     

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