Abstract:
Under guidance of 14th Five-Year Plan, Liaoning Province accelerates modernisation of agriculture and rural areas, and promotes leap from a large agricultural province to a strong agricultural province, so it is necessary to clarify factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning Province, and to find out focuses of agricultural emission reduction.Based on historical data of agricultural carbon emissions in Liaoning Province from 2012 to 2021, main drivers of agricultural carbon emissions were identified through LMDI factor decomposition method, and quantitative relationship of each variable was quantitatively analyzed using STIRPAT model.Through LMDI factor decomposition method, agricultural carbon emission in Liaoning Province was decomposed into agricultural carbon emission coefficient, energy intensity, agricultural industry structure, agricultural economic development level, and population size, in which agricultural carbon emission coefficient, energy intensity, and population size had a negative impact on agricultural carbon emission, while agricultural industry structure and agricultural economic development level had a positive impact.STIRPAT model showed that when other factors remain unchanged, agricultural carbon emission coefficient, energy intensity, agricultural industry structure, agricultural economic development level, and population size changed by 1% respectively, agricultural carbon emissions changed by
0.4997%,
0.0140%, −
0.0735%, −
0.0241%, and
0.2418% respectively, and model analysis presented with the LMDI factor decomposition the same results.In the context of the "Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral" target, it was recommended to control application of chemical fertilisers, improve living environment of rural population, stabilise and maintain sustainable growth of rural economy, and promote effective carbon emission reduction in agriculture of Liaoning Province.