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基于ERA5再分析数据的盐城市小麦气候适宜度评价

Evaluation of wheat climatic suitability in Yancheng City based on ERA5 reanalysis data

  • 摘要: 为明确江苏省盐城市小麦气候适宜度时空分布特点,指导小麦生产布局,基于ERA5再分析数据,构建小麦生育期温度、降水和日照适宜度模型,采用GIS空间分析与自然断点法分级,系统评价1990—2020年盐城市小麦气候适宜性。结果表明,盐城市小麦全生育期温度适宜度南北有差异(0.72~0.78),灌浆期最高(>0.9);降水适宜度南高北低(0.52~0.65),分蘖期南北差异明显;日照适宜度东北高西南低(0.89~0.93),生育后期普遍较高(>0.92);综合气候适宜度差异显著(0.71~0.77),东南部东台市、大丰区形成高值中心,北部响水县、滨海县为低值区。总体而言,盐城市小麦种植适宜区集中于中南部,北部地区降水条件是影响适宜度的关键因素。优化品种布局、改善水分管理和合理调整播种期等措施对保证盐城市小麦稳产增产具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: To clarify spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of wheat climatic suitability in Yancheng City, Jiangsu Province, and guide wheat production layout, a temperature, precipitation, and sunshine suitability models for wheat growth periods was constructed based on ERA5 reanalysis data.Using GIS spatial analysis and natural breakpoint classification, wheat climatic suitability in Yancheng City from 1990 to 2020 was systematically evaluated.Results indicated that temperature suitability showed a north-south gradient(0.72~0.78), reaching peak values during grain-filling stage(>0.9).Precipitation suitability demonstrated higher values in south than in north(0.52~0.65), with significant north-south differences during tillering stage.Sunshine suitability exhibited higher values in northeastern regions than in southwestern regions(0.89~0.93), exceeding 0.92 in later growth stages.Significant spatial variations existed in comprehensive climatic suitability(0.71~0.77), with high-value centers in southeastern Dongtai City and Dafeng District, while northern Xiangshui County and Binhai County formed low-value areas.Overall, moderately suitable wheat cultivation areas in Yancheng City was concentrated in central-southern region, with precipitation conditions as a key factor affecting suitability in northern regions.Optimizing variety selection, improving water management, and adjusting sowing dates were recommended to ensure stable and increased wheat yields in Yancheng City.

     

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