中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

基于湿发酵CSTR工艺的生物天然气项目运营成本构成及敏感性分析

Operating costs structure and sensitivity analysis for bio-natural gas projects based on wet fermentation CSTR process

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”战略引领下,生物天然气作为生物质能高效转化与清洁利用的重要途径,其产业化进程显著加快。综合评述生物天然气生产的主流技术路线,基于文献调研和专家咨询构建了多维度全生命周期成本估算模型,结合典型项目案例进行实证分析。结果表明,基于湿发酵CSTR工艺的生物天然气制备成本呈现显著的结构性特征,原料成本(占45%)与动力成本(占21%)共同构成核心成本板块;经有机肥副产品收益抵扣后,单位产品综合成本3.03元/m3,较常规天然气门站价格高32%~66%。敏感性分析量化识别出建设投资、有机肥市场价格和原料采购价格3大关键影响因素。模型验证表明,通过集约化原料收储、设备国产化水平提升及项目规模优化等路径,整体生产成本可降低15%~25%。该研究构建的技术−经济评估体系为提升生物天然气项目经济竞争力提供了系统化依据,对推动产业规模化发展具有实践指导价值。

     

    Abstract: Driven by "dual carbon" strategic, industrialization process of bio-natural gas, as an important pathway for efficient conversion and clean utilization of biomass energy, has accelerated significantly.A comprehensive review of mainstream biogas production technologies was conducted.A multidimensional full life cycle cost estimation model was developed based on literature research and expert consultation, and empirical analysis was performed using typical project cases.Research results indicated that bio-natural gas production cost exhibited significant structural characteristics, with raw material costs(accounting for 45%)and energy costs(accounting for 21%)forming core cost components.After deducting income from organic fertilizer by-products, comprehensive cost per unit product was 3.03 yuan/m3, which was 32%~66% higher than conventional natural gas station price.Sensitivity analysis quantitatively identified three key influencing factors: construction investment, organic fertilizer market prices, and raw material procurement price.Model validation showed that through intensive raw material collection and storage, increased domestic equipment localization level, and optimized project scale, overall production costs could be reduced by 15%~25%.Technology-economic evaluation system was constructed to provide a systematic basis for enhancing economic competitiveness of bio-natural gas projects, and offering practical guidance value for promoting industrial scale development.

     

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