Abstract:
Utilizing daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2023 of 10 national meteorological stations in Hechi City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, combined with geographical information data, and using socio-economic data on mulberry tree planting area, fresh cocoon production, and GDP from 2019 to 2023 for each county(district), a trend analysis method and spatial analysis method were employed to explore spatio-temporal characteristics of spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberries in Hechi City.Based on natural disaster risk theory, risk factors such as disaster-causing factors' severity, exposure to disaster-breeding environments, disaster-affected bodies' vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities were selected to construct a risk index.Finally, a risk zoning for spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry in Hechi City was conducted for spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry trees.Results showed that total number of days and frequency of spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry in Hechi City did not show a significant downward trend, and spatial distribution of low-temperature cold damage varied greatly with changes in terrain altitude.Low-risk areas for low-temperature cold damage account for 30.1% of total area, mainly distributed in Jinchengjiang District, Bama Yao Autonomous County, and Dahua Yao Autonomous County.Medium-risk areas account for 47.8% of total area with distribution across all counties and districts.High-risk areas account for 22.1% of total area, mainly distributed in eastern and western parts of Hechi City, Huanjiang Maonan Autonomous County, and Luocheng Mulao Autonomous County.Following policy of stabilizing sericulture industry in Hechi City and maintaining stability to east while expanding in west, it is necessary to strengthen cold resistance construction in high-risk and medium-risk mulberry orchards in eastern and western regions.