中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

河池市桑树春季低温冷害时空特征与风险区划

Spatio-temporal characteristics and risk zoning of spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry in Hechi City

  • 摘要: 利用广西壮族自治区河池市1961—2023年10个国家地面气象观测站的逐日平均气温和地理信息数据,结合2019—2023年各县(区)桑树种植面积、鲜茧产量和GDP社会经济数据,采用趋势分析法和空间分析法探讨河池市桑树春季低温冷害的时空特征,并基于自然灾害风险理论,选取桑树春季低温冷害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力因子构建风险指数,最后进行河池市桑树春季低温冷害的风险区划。结果表明,河池市桑树春季低温冷害总天数和频次未表现出明显下降趋势,低温冷害的空间分布随地形海拔变化较大。低温冷害低风险区面积占比30.1%,主要分布在金城江区、巴马瑶族自治县和大化瑶族自治县;中风险区面积占比47.8%,各县区均有分布;高风险区面积占比22.1%,主要分布在河池市东部、西部、环江毛南族自治县和罗城仫佬族自治县。在河池市蚕业稳东拓西政策背景下,需重点加强东部、西部地区高风险区和中风险区桑树园区防寒抗寒建设。

     

    Abstract: Utilizing daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2023 of 10 national meteorological stations in Hechi City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, combined with geographical information data, and using socio-economic data on mulberry tree planting area, fresh cocoon production, and GDP from 2019 to 2023 for each county(district), a trend analysis method and spatial analysis method were employed to explore spatio-temporal characteristics of spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberries in Hechi City.Based on natural disaster risk theory, risk factors such as disaster-causing factors' severity, exposure to disaster-breeding environments, disaster-affected bodies' vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities were selected to construct a risk index.Finally, a risk zoning for spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry in Hechi City was conducted for spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry trees.Results showed that total number of days and frequency of spring low-temperature cold damage to mulberry in Hechi City did not show a significant downward trend, and spatial distribution of low-temperature cold damage varied greatly with changes in terrain altitude.Low-risk areas for low-temperature cold damage account for 30.1% of total area, mainly distributed in Jinchengjiang District, Bama Yao Autonomous County, and Dahua Yao Autonomous County.Medium-risk areas account for 47.8% of total area with distribution across all counties and districts.High-risk areas account for 22.1% of total area, mainly distributed in eastern and western parts of Hechi City, Huanjiang Maonan Autonomous County, and Luocheng Mulao Autonomous County.Following policy of stabilizing sericulture industry in Hechi City and maintaining stability to east while expanding in west, it is necessary to strengthen cold resistance construction in high-risk and medium-risk mulberry orchards in eastern and western regions.

     

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