Abstract: Evaluation and prediction of carrying capacity of resources and environment have important theoretical and practical significance for ecological civilization comprehensive promotion in China, while land resources carrying capacity reflects sustainable land resources utilization status in context of rapid urbanization development．Land resource data from Tianshui City, Gansu Province, from 2002 to 2022 were analyzed by using time series．Land resources carrying capacity change in Tianshui City was comprehensively evaluated by using entropy weight TOPSIS-PCA, and its primary obstacle factors were explored．Results showed that, first, land resources carrying capacity in Tianshui City showed a steady upward trend from 2002 to 2022．Second, economic development, population and ecology, and resource allocation were main obstacles factors affecting land resources carrying capacity in Tianshui City．In subsequent optimizing local industrial structure process, adjustments should be made to land use structure and increase ecological protection．Third, through linear regression（least squares method）prediction, it was found that land resources carrying capacity in Tianshui City from 2023 to 2030, showed a positive development trend．Results provided theoretical support for Tianshui City sustainable development, and have certain reference value for its industrial structure adjustment and land resources planning and utilization．