中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

河北省种植业碳排放特征及驱动因素

Carbon emission characteristics and driving factors in planting industry of Hebei Province

  • 摘要: 基于河北省2000—2022年种植业统计数据,采用IPCC碳排放系数法测算河北省种植业碳排放量及碳排放强度,分析其时空特征,基于Tapio模型分析碳排放脱钩特征,并运用LMDI模型探讨种植业碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明,2000—2022年,河北省种植业碳排放量以农用物资为主,整体呈现上升−平稳−下降的趋势,碳排放强度先平稳后呈快速下降态势,化肥是种植业碳排放最主要的碳源;2022年,河北省种植业碳排放量呈现北部低、南部高的特点,碳排放量最多的为保定市、邯郸市,碳排放强度高值区主要位于衡水市、沧州市;研究期内出现弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩、增长连接、强负脱钩、衰退脱钩和强脱钩6种脱钩关系,2014年开始由传统种植业生产方式向绿色低碳的种植业发展之路转变;对河北省种植业碳排放量增加具有抑制作用的是生产效率、生产结构、劳动力规模因素,具有促进作用的是经济发展因素和城镇化因素。

     

    Abstract: Based on statistical data from Hebei Province's planting industry from 2000 to 2022, IPCC carbon emission coefficient method was employed to calculate carbon emissions and emission intensity from province's planting sector.Spatiotemporal characteristics were analyzed, Tapio model was used to examine decoupling characteristics of carbon emissions, and LMDI model was applied to investigate driving factors in planting industry.Results showed that from 2000 to 2022, carbon emissions in planting sector of Hebei Province were mainly driven by agricultural inputs, showing an overall trend of rising-stability-declining.Carbon emission intensity was stable initially before showing a rapid decline, with chemical fertilizers being primary carbon source in planting industry.In 2022, carbon emissions displayed a spatial pattern of lower emissions in northern regions and higher emissions in southern regions.Baoding City and Handan City recorded the highest carbon emissions, while high emission intensity areas were mainly located in Hengshui City and Cangzhou City.Six decoupling relationships observed during study period: weak decoupling, expanded negative decoupling, growth connection, strong negative decoupling, recession decoupling, and strong decoupling.A transition from traditional production methods to green low-carbon development began in 2014.Production efficiency, production structure, and labor scale factors inhibited a restraining effect on the increase in carbon emissions from Hebei Province's planting industry, while economic development and urbanization factors had a promoting effect.

     

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