中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

新疆各地(州、市)农业碳汇效应与低碳农业生产效率研究

Research on agricultural carbon sink effect and low-carbon agricultural production efficiency in various regions(prefectures and cities)of Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 随着气候变化问题日益严重,低碳农业发展成为全球范围内的重要课题。以新疆维吾尔自治区(简称新疆)为研究对象,分析2008—2022年新疆14个地(州、市)农业碳排放和碳汇效应的时空变化特征,并基于超效率SBM模型和DEA-Malmquist模型评估低碳农业生产效率。通过IPCC推荐的系数测算法计算农业碳排放量和农业碳汇量,得出农业净碳汇量;采用超效率SBM模型对低碳农业生产效率进行静态分析,而DEA-Malmquist模型则用于动态效率分析。结果表明,研究期内新疆农业净碳汇量始终为正值,但区域差异显著,北疆农业净碳汇量普遍高于南疆;低碳农业生产效率总体呈波动上升趋势,其中东疆效率最高,南疆最低,并且区域差距依然明显;技术进步对全要素生产率提升具有显著作用,尤其在部分地区技术创新和资源配置优化发挥了关键作用。研究结果为推动新疆低碳农业转型提供了数据支持和理论依据,同时为制定更加精准的区域低碳农业发展政策提供参考。

     

    Abstract: As climate change issues becoming increasingly severe, low-carbon agricultural development has emerged as a crucial global topic.Taking Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(abbr.Xinjiang)as research subject, spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sink effects across 14 prefectures(cities)in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2022 were analyzed.Low-carbon agricultural production efficiency was evaluated using both super-efficiency SBM model and DEA-Malmquist model.Agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sink were calculated using IPCC-recommended coefficient methods to determine agricultural net carbon sink capacity.Static analysis of low-carbon agricultural production efficiency was conducted using super-efficiency SBM model, while DEA-Malmquist model was used for dynamic efficiency analysis.Results revealed that Xinjiang's agricultural net carbon sink remained consistently positive throughout study period, with significant regional disparities: northern Xinjiang demonstrating generally higher values than southern Xinjiang.Low-carbon agricultural production efficiency exhibited fluctuating upward trends, with eastern Xinjiang achieving the highest efficiency and southern Xinjiang the lowest, while regional disparities maintained significant gaps.Technological progress significantly enhanced total factor productivity, particularly through technological innovation and resource allocation optimization in partial regions.Data support and theoretical foundation for promoting low-carbon agricultural transformation in Xinjiang were provided, while also serve as references for formulating targeted regional policies for low-carbon agricultural development.

     

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