中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

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基于Stacking(RF-SVR-MLP)模型的新疆平均气温空间插值方法

Spatial interpolation method for average temperature in Xinjiang based on Stacking (RF-SVR-MLP)model

  • 摘要: 为解决新疆维吾尔自治区(简称新疆)复杂地形与气象站分布不均导致的气温空间插值难题,提出基于贝叶斯优化的Stacking集成RF-SVR-MLP模型。以2011—2024年新疆84个气象站数据为基础,融合高程、坡度等多源地形协变量,通过随机森林(RF)、支持向量回归(SVR)作为基模型挖掘非线性关系,多层感知机(MLP)作为元模型整合预测结果,结合贝叶斯优化与K-5折交叉验证优化超参数。多时间尺度验证显示,模型年尺度平均绝对误差1.105 °C、均方根误差1.337 °C、决定系数(R2)0.836,误差较最优单一模型分别降低35.2%、31.0%,拟合优度提升27.4%;夏季破解单一模型失效问题(R2=0.759),冬季适配逆温特征(平均绝对误差降低40.2%),4—10月关键期平均绝对误差均<1.2 °C。该模型有效突破传统方法与单一机器学习局限,精准适配复杂地形与站点稀疏区域,为干旱区农业布局、生态保护提供高精度气温数据,丰富了气候要素空间化方法体系。

     

    Abstract: To address challenge of spatial temperature interpolation caused by complex terrain and uneven distribution of meteorological stations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(abbreviated as Xinjiang), a Stacking ensemble RF-SVR-MLP model based on Bayesian optimization has been proposed.Based on data from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2024, model has integrated multi-source topographic covariates such as elevation and slope.Random forest(RF)and support vector regression(SVR)have been employed as base models to explore nonlinear relationships, while multilayer perceptron(MLP)serves as meta-model to integrate prediction results.Bayesian optimization combined with K-5 fold cross-validation have been used to optimize hyperparameters.Multi-time scale validation showed that model's annual-scale mean absolute error was 1.105 °C, root mean square error was 1.337 °C, and coefficient of determination(R2)was 0.836.Compared to optimal single model, MAE and RMSE were reduced by 35.2% and 31.0%, respectively, while goodness of fit improved by 27.4%.In summer, model has resolved issues of single-model failure(R2=0.759), and in winter, it has adapted to temperature inversion characteristics(reducing mean absolute error by 40.2%).During critical period from April to October, mean absolute error consistently remained below 1.2 °C.This model has effectively broken through limitations of traditional methods and single machine learning models, accurately adapting to complex terrain and sparsely populated station areas.It has provided high-precision temperature data for agricultural planning and ecological protection in arid regions, thereby enriching methodological system for climate variables spatialization.

     

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