中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

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基于多尺度时空特征的秦岭地区松材线虫病传播动力学分析

Transmission dynamics of pine wilt disease in Qinling Mountains region based on multi-scale spatiotemporal characteristics

  • 摘要: 构建基于多尺度时空特征的秦岭地区松材线虫病动力学模型,系统分析模型的适定性,并在非局部时滞反应−扩散系统模型基础上推导出下一代算子 \mathcalL ,进而定义基本再生数R0为该算子的谱半径,明确基本再生数与模型平衡点稳定性之间的内在关系。在此基础上,结合Euler-Lagrange方程与梯度投影迭代算法模拟不同海拔下的最优值,揭示了海拔高度对清理策略的影响机制。结果表明,基本再生数是决定模型传播动态和平衡态稳定性的关键参数,不同海拔条件下清理强度的最优配置存在显著差异。基于泛函优化方法提出的防控策略,能够为松材线虫病的区域治理提供理论指导。

     

    Abstract: A dynamic model of pine wilt disease was constructed for Qinling Mountains region based on multi-scale spatiotemporal characteristics.Model's well-posedness was systematically analyzed.A nonlocal time-delayed reaction-diffusion system model was used to derive a next-generation operator \mathcalL , and basic reproduction number R0 was defined as spectral radius of this operator, there by clarifying intrinsic relationship between basic reproduction number and model's equilibrium points stability.Based on this, Euler-Lagrange equations with gradient projection iterative algorithm were employed to simulate optimal solutions at different elevations, revealing mechanism by which elevation factors influence control strategies.Results have indicated that basic reproduction number is a critical parameter determining model's transmission dynamics and equilibrium state stability, and significant differences existed in optimal allocation of control intensity under varying elevation conditions.Prevention and control strategies proposed based on functional optimization method could provide theoretical guidance for regional management of pine wilt disease.

     

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