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日照市强降水时空分布特征及预报指标

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Prediction Indexes of Strong Precipitation in Rizhao City

  • 摘要: 利用山东省日照市2007—2016年观测资料,统计了日照市49次强降水过程年际和月际变化特征。按照强降水发生时影响系统对日照市产生强降水的天气形势进行分型,并分析不同季节强降水关键环境参量。研究表明,7—8月强降水出现次数最多,且影响范围最大;日照市强降水天气形势可分为低槽冷锋型、低涡切变型、气旋型和台风型,其中低槽冷锋型是日照市产生强降水的主要天气类型;上游及青岛(T-Td)850、青岛(T-Td)700+(T-Td)850、850 hPa水汽通量散度、850 hPa假相当位温、K指数和850 hPa的最大上升速度6个物理要素指标对日照产生强降水具有很好指示意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on observation data of Rizhao city,Shandong province from 2007 to 2016,interannual and interdisciplinary characteristics of 49 severe precipitation process in Rizhao were analyzed.According to influence system of heavy rainfall,weather conditions of heavy precipitation in Rizhao were classified and analyzed,key environmental parameters of heavy rainfall in different seasons were also analyzed.Results showed that number of heavy precipitation in July-August was the largest and influence was also the largest.Weather conditions of heavy rainfall in Rizhao could be divided into low-slot cold front type,low vortex shear type,cyclone type and typhoon type,low-slot cold front type was main weather type of heavy precipitation in Rizhao.Upstream and Qingdao(T-Td)850,Qingdao(T-Td)700+(T-Td)850,850 hPa water vapor flux divergence,850 hPa pseudo-equivalent bit temperature,K index ,the maximum rising rate of 850 hPa had good indication of heavy rainfall in Rizhao.

     

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