Abstract: Aiming at problem of model selection faced by farmers in actual production，based on consideration of random yield and threshold of contract farming，a Stackelberg game model of“company+farmer”was constructed.Optimal decision making behavior of farmers under two modes of“independent production”and“contract farming”was compared and analyzed.When threshold was low，farmers should pay attention to market size and market price.Only when the market size was large and market price was low，they should choose to join“contract farming”model，otherwise they should choose“independent production”model.When threshold was high，if the market price was low and threshold was at an appropriate level，it was better to choose the“contract farming”model.