中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

基于FMECA-AHP方法的水库枢纽区脆弱性评价

Vulnerability Assessment of Reservoir Junction Area Based on FMECA-AHP Method

  • 摘要: 利用FMECA方法对水库枢纽区进行风险分析,按其故障模式对环境和人员的影响,将水库枢纽区分为水库大坝区、流域区和植被覆盖区。结合云南省某工程实际情况,科学选取3个准则、9个一级指标和28个二级指标构建了整个水库枢纽区的脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上,采用改进的模糊层次分析法,对整个水库枢纽区的脆弱性进行模糊综合评价。结果表明,该水库枢纽区的脆弱性等级为“一般”。评价结果与实际情况吻合,证明该方法可用于水库枢纽区的安全评估和灾害预防,打破了以往单一研究水库大坝安全的局限性。

     

    Abstract: Risk of reservoir junction area system was analyzed by failure modes effects and criticality analysis(FMECA)method,reservoir junction area was divided into dam area,watershed area and vegetation coverage area according to impact of its failure mode on environment and personnel.Combined with actual situation of a project in Yunnan Province,3 criteria,9 first level indicators and 28 second level indicators were scientifically selected to build vulnerability evaluation index system of whole system.On this basis,the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to evaluate vulnerability of whole reservoir area.Results showed that vulnerability level of reservoir hub area was“general”according to calculation results,which were consistent with actual situation,proving that the method could be used for safety assessment and disaster prevention of reservoirjunction area,breaking limitation of previous single study on dam safety.

     

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