Present Situation and Development Suggestions of Agricultural Modernization in Shandong ProvinceBased on Quantity of Agricultural Labor Force
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摘要:
基于2008-2019年山东省农业就业人口数量,运用Stata软件对影响山东省农业就业人口的因素进行OLS多元线性回归分析。研究结论:化肥施用量、有效耕作面积、农民实际可支配收入3个变量对山东省农业劳动力数量影响最显著,扩大有效耕作面积对山东省吸引农业劳动力起正向影响,而限制化肥施用与农民实际可支配收入增加对山东省农业劳动力增长起反向影响。据此,在山东省提升机械化程度、提高农业就业质量,优化农业空间布局、实施新型城镇化战略,健全惠农强农体系、为农业就业者提供保障等方面实行切实有效的措施,从而推进山东省农业现代化建设。
Abstract:Based on number of agricultural employed population in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2019, factors affecting agricultural employed population in Shandong Province were analyzed by OLS multiple linear regression using Stata software. Three variables of chemical fertilizer, effective farming area and farmers' actual disposable income had the most significant impact on number of agricultural labor force in Shandong Province. Expanding effective farming area had a positive impact on attracting agricultural labor force in Shandong Province, while limiting use of chemical fertilizer and increase of farmers' actual disposable income had a negative impact on growth of agricultural labor force in Shandong Province. Therefore, degree of mechanization and quality of agricultural employment in Shandong Province should be improved. Spatial distribution of agriculture and implement new urbanization strategy should be optimized. System of benefiting and strengthening agriculture should be improved, and practical and effective measures to provide security for agricultural employees should be implemented to promote construction of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province.
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表 1 2008—2019年山东省农民人均可支配收入
Table 1. Per capita disposable income of farmers in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2019
年份 农民名义可支配收入/元 价格指数 农民实际可支配收入/元 2008 5641.43 100.00 5641.43 2009 6118.77 100.10 6112.66 2010 6990.28 103.58 6748.82 2011 8342.13 109.67 7606.36 2012 9446.40 111.87 8444.35 2013 10686.90 114.66 9320.25 2014 11882.30 116.38 10209.64 2015 12930.40 117.43 11011.10 2016 13954.10 119.54 11672.74 2017 15117.50 121.22 12471.34 2018 16297.00 124.49 13090.92 2019 17775.50 128.97 13782.40 表 2 2008—2019年山东省各变量数据
Table 2. Data of various variables in Shandong Province from 2008 to 2019
年份 y/万人 x1/万t x2/万hm2 x3/% x4/元 x5/元 x6/亿元 2008 2313.4 476.3 485.75 47.60 5641.43 235.30 2863.29 2009 2298.5 472.9 489.69 48.32 6112.66 369.35 3170.05 2010 2273.1 475.3 495.53 49.70 6748.82 465.98 3588.42 2011 2213.5 473.6 498.69 50.95 7606.36 564.00 3737.04 2012 2168.0 476.3 505.80 52.43 8444.35 673.82 3829.19 2013 2086.0 472.7 472.90 53.75 9320.25 748.14 4335.77 2014 2023.2 468.1 490.19 55.01 10209.64 777.84 4556.10 2015 1963.2 463.5 496.44 57.01 11011.10 964.42 4662.61 2016 1935.1 456.5 516.12 59.02 11672.74 943.44 4387.51 2017 1856.6 440.0 519.11 60.58 12471.34 953.59 4403.23 2018 1718.2 420.3 523.60 61.18 13090.92 998.50 4678.26 2019 1652.6 395.3 527.14 61.51 13782.40 1075.98 4914.43 表 3 OLS参数估计结果
Table 3. OLS parameter estimation results
变量 弹性系数 标准误差 t 值 x1 2.39 0.13 3.10 x2 0.66 0.85 0.78 x3 8.04 23.72 0.34 x4 −0.09 0.05 −1.58 x5 0.10 0.19 0.51 x6 0.01 0.07 −0.05 _cons 955.91 955.19 1.00 R2=0.9967 R2adj=0.9928 F=254.71 表 4 各变量逐步回归结果
Table 4. Stepwise regression results of various variables
变量 参数 标准误差 t 值 P>|t| x4 −0.06 0.00 −19.88 0.00 x1 2.78 0.38 7.34 0.00 x2 0.91 0.48 1.89 0.09 _cons 904.23 369.83 2.44 0.04 R2=0.9965 R2adj=0.9951 F=749.34 表 5 White检验结果
Table 5. White test results
变量 χ值 自由度 P值 异方差性 10.46 9 0.31 偏度 5.28 3 0.15 峰度 0.45 1 0.50 总计 16.20 13 0.24 表 6 BG检验结果
Table 6. BG test results
lags(p) χ值 自由度 P值 1 4.091 1 0.04 H0:不存在自相关性 表 7 修正后回归结果
Table 7. Stepwise regression results of various variables
变量 参数 标准误差 t 值 P>|t| x4 −0.06 0.00 −40.40 0.00 x1 3.03 0.23 13.28 0.00 x2 1.22 0.28 4.12 0.00 _cons 633.17 234.90 2.70 0.03 R2=0.9992 R2adj=0.9989 F=749.34 -
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