Risk Zoning of Cherry Low Temperature Freezing Injury in Yan'an Gully Region
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摘要:
利用延安市13个国家气象站1991—2020年的年极端最低气温（冬季）、每年4月中旬—5月中旬（春季花期）的旬极端最低气温和109个加密区域站2008—2020年的年极端最低气温、2013—2020年每年4月中旬—5月中旬的旬极端最低气温观测资料，通过线性回归方法，进行数据订正延长和空间插值，并利用GIS技术，绘制樱桃冬季、春季花期低温冻害风险区划图。结果表明，国家气象站与加密区域站温度观测数据相关性非常好，可以得到加密区域站30年温度数据；温度受海拔高度、经度、纬度的共同影响，建立的多元线性回归方程通过0.001的可信度检验，计算出的温度分布呈现出沟壑区沟谷低山顶高的特征；区划结果为延长县、宜川县、黄龙县、洛川县、黄陵县，以及延川县中东部、宝塔区东部为樱桃低温冻害低风险区；甘泉县、富县，以及宝塔区西部、延川县中西部、子长市南部、安塞区南部为樱桃低温冻害中风险区；吴起县、志丹县，以及安塞区北部、子长市北部为低温冻害高风险区。
Abstract:Using annual extreme minimum temperature（winter）, ecadal extreme minimum temperature from mid-April to mid-May（spring flowering period）of 13 national meteorological stations in Yan'an City from 1991 to 2020, and annual extreme minimum temperature from 109 meteorological observation stations from 2008 to 2020, as well as extreme minimum temperature observation data from mid-April to mid-May from 2013 to 2020, using linear regression method, data correction and spatial interpolation were performed, and GIS technology was used to draw a risk zoning map for low temperature freezing damage during cherry winter and spring flowering periods．Results showed that, obtaining temperature data from weather observation station for 30 years was possible, and there was a strong correlation between temperature observation data from national meteorological stations and regional stations．Temperature was jointly influenced by altitude, longitude and latitude, and multiple linear regression equation established could pass confidence test of 0.001．Calculated temperature distribution showed characteristics of low valley and high mountain top in gully region．Zoning results showed that Yanchang County, Yichuan County, Huanglong County, Luochuan County, Huangling County, as well as central and eastern parts of Yanchuan County and Baota District, were low risk areas for cherry low-temperature freezing damage; Ganquan County, Fuxian County, as well as western part of Baota District, central and western part of Yanchuan County, southern part of Zichang City, and southern part of Ansai District, were medium risk areas for cherry low-temperature freezing damage; Wuqi County, Zhidan County, as well as northern part of Ansai District and Zichang City, were high-risk areas for low temperature and freezing damage．
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Keywords:
- cherry /
- low temperature frezzing injury /
- risk zoning /
- gully region /
- agrometeorology
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图 1 延安市温度观测站点分布
Figure 1. Distribution of temperature observation stations in Yan'an City
图 2 志丹县、富县国家气象站和加密区域站年极端最低气温拟合
Figure 2. Fitting of annual extreme minimum temperature of national meteorological stations in Zhidan County，Fuxian County and encrypted regional stations
图 4 延安市冬季最低温度回归分析残差分析
Figure 4. Residual analysis of regression analysis of minimum temperature in winter in Yan'an City
图 5 延安市冬季最低温度回归分析残差IDW插值
Figure 5. IDW interpolation of regression analysis residual of minimum temperature in winter in Yan'an City
图 6 延安市樱桃冬季低温冻害风险区划
Figure 6. Zoning map of low temperature and freezing injury risk of cherries in Yan'an City in winter
图 7 延安市樱桃春季花期冻害风险区划
Figure 7. Zoning map of freezing damage risk of cherry spring flowering in Yan'an City
表 1 延安市冬季、春季樱桃低温冻害风险指标
Table 1. Risk indicators of low temperature and freezing damage of cherries in Yan'an in winter and spring
冻害风险等级 低风险区 中风险区 高风险区 （冬季）季极端最低气温/ °C ≥−20 −23～−20 ≤−23 （春季）旬极端最低气温/ °C ≥−1.0 −2.9～−1.1 ≤−3.0 
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