中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

新疆且末县近50年红枣农业气候资源变化特征分析

胡启瑞 邓新建 甄建民 郝亚明 热比耶·努日 王雪娇

胡启瑞,邓新建,甄建民,等.新疆且末县近50年红枣农业气候资源变化特征分析[J].农业工程,2023,13(8):74-80. doi: 10.19998/j.cnki.2095-1795.2023.08.013
引用本文: 胡启瑞,邓新建,甄建民,等.新疆且末县近50年红枣农业气候资源变化特征分析[J].农业工程,2023,13(8):74-80. doi: 10.19998/j.cnki.2095-1795.2023.08.013
HU Qirui,DENG Xinjian,ZHEN Jianmin,et al.Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources of red jujube in Qiemo County,Xinjiang in the last 50 years[J].Agricultural Engineering,2023,13(8):74-80. doi: 10.19998/j.cnki.2095-1795.2023.08.013
Citation: HU Qirui,DENG Xinjian,ZHEN Jianmin,et al.Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources of red jujube in Qiemo County,Xinjiang in the last 50 years[J].Agricultural Engineering,2023,13(8):74-80. doi: 10.19998/j.cnki.2095-1795.2023.08.013

新疆且末县近50年红枣农业气候资源变化特征分析

doi: 10.19998/j.cnki.2095-1795.2023.08.013
基金项目: 新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州星火科技项目(202015)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    胡启瑞,工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象灾害研究 E-mail:huqirui_xjxnw@163.com

    邓新建,通信作者,学士,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象服务 E-mail:50898488@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: S162.3

Change Characteristics of Agricultural Climate Resources of Red Jujube in Qiemo County,Xinjiang in the Last 50 Years

  • 摘要:

    以红枣为研究对象,利用新疆且末县1971—2020年逐日气象数据资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变检测、小波分析和气候倾向率等方法,分析红枣生长季农业气候资源变化特征,为当地红枣产业适应气候变化提供科学依据。结果表明,红枣生长季平均气温和≥10 °C积温呈显著增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.36 °C/10年、98.4 °C·d/10年,分别在2003和2008年发生了由少到多的显著突变;降水量变化不明显,呈略微的增加趋势,年际间波动较大。日照时数呈减少趋势,在1981年发生由多到少的突变,气候倾向率为24.4 h/10年;夏季高温日数呈增加趋势,尤其以7月的增加显著,增加速率2.0 d/10年;夏季气温日较差平均15.8 °C,6—8月气温日较差均呈减少趋势,但变化不明显。春季、夏季的大风日数和沙尘日数均呈减少趋势,其中大风日数显著减少,沙尘日数年际分布不均。气候变化背景下,且末县红枣生长季光热资源丰富、气温日较差大,总体有利于红枣产量的提高,但开花坐果期高温日数的增加,对红枣生长发育有一定影响。

     

  • 图 1  1971—2020年红枣生长季平均气温年际变化趋势和M-K检验

    Figure 1.  Interannual variation trend of average temperatureand M-K test of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 2  1971—2020年红枣生长季平均气温小波变换系数及方差

    Figure 2.  Wavelet transform coefficient and variance of average temperature of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 3  1971—2020年红枣生长季≥10 °C积温和持续日数年际变化趋

    Figure 3.  Interannual variation trend of ≥ 10 °C accumulated temperature and continuous days of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 4  1971—2020年红枣生长季≥10 °C积温和持续日数M-K检验

    Figure 4.  M-K test (a) of cumulative temperature ≥ 10 °C and continuous days of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 5  1971—2020年红枣生长季气温日较差和高温日数变化

    Figure 5.  Interannual variation trend of daily temperature difference and high temperature days change of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 6  1971—2020年红枣生长季降水量及M-K检验

    Figure 6.  Interannual variation trend of precipitation and M-K test of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 7  1971—2020年红枣生长季降水量小波变换系数及方差

    Figure 7.  Wavelet transform coefficient and variance of precipitation of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 8  1971—2020年红枣生长季日照时数和M-K检验

    Figure 8.  Interannual variation trend of sunshine hours and M-K test of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 9  1971—2020年红枣生长季日照时数小波变换系数及方差

    Figure 9.  Wavelet transform coefficient and variance of sunshine hours of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 10  1971—2020年红枣生长季春、夏大风日数和沙尘日数年际变化

    Figure 10.  Interannual variation of windy days and dust days in spring and summer of red jujube from 1971 to 2020 in growing season

    图 11  1971—2020年且末县冬季极端最低气温和≤20 °C持续日数年际变化

    Figure 11.  Interannual variation of extreme minimum temperature and continuous days (≤ 20 °C) in winter of Qiemo County from 1971 to 2020

  • [1] 郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1): 1 - 11 .

    GUO Jianpin.Advance in impactc of climate change on agriculture production in China[J].Jonural of Applied Meteorological Science,2015,26(1): 1 - 11 .
    [2] BATTISTI D S,NAYLOR R L.Historical warnings of future foodinsecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat[J].Science,2009,323( 5911 ): 240 - 244 . doi: 10.1126/science.1164363
    [3] 秦大河.IPCC-第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1): 1 - 6 .

    QIN Dahe.Highlights of the IPCC working group I fifth assessment report[J].Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(1): 1 - 6 .
    [4] 张亚宁,张明军,王圣杰,等.气候变化对河西走廊主要农作物的影响[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(8): 1325 - 1335 .

    ZHANG Yaning,ZHANG Mingjun,WANG Shengjie,et al.Impacts of climate change on main crops in the Hexi Corridor[J].Ecology and Environment Sciences,2017,26(8): 1325 - 1335 .
    [5] 刘敬强,瓦哈甫·哈力克,哈斯穆·阿比孜,等.新疆特色林果业种植对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2013,68(5): 708 - 720 .

    LIU Jingqaing,HALIK Wahap,ABZ Hasm,et al.Response of chaacteristic horticulture plant to climate change of Xinjiang[J].Acta Gegraphica Sinca,2013,68(5): 708 - 720 .
    [6] TONG S Q,LI X Q,ZHANG J Q,et al.Spatial and temporal variability in extreme temperature and precipitation events in Inner Mongolia(China) during1960–2017[J].Science of the Total Environment,2019,649(3): 75 - 89 .
    [7] 张山清,普宗朝,李景林,等.气候变化对新疆红枣种植气候区划的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(6): 713 - 721 .

    ZHANG Shanqing,PU Zongchao,LI Jingling,et al.Impact of climate change on the division of jujube planting zones in Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(6): 713 - 721 .
    [8] 刘璐,王景红,张维敏,等.1971—2010年陕北红枣种植区气候变化特征及其对物候期的影响[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5): 841 - 846 .

    LIU Lu,WANG Jinghong,ZHANG Weimin,et al.Climte change chracteristic and its impaction on phenophase of jujube in northern Shanxi during 1971-2010[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2016,34(5): 841 - 846 .
    [9] 韩会梅,李青,徐崇志.南疆地区气温变化及其对红枣产量的影响[J].山东农业科学,2014(1): 100 - 104 .

    HAN Huimei,LI Qing,XU Chongzhi.Air temperature change in southern Xinjiang and its influence on jujube yield[J].Shandong Agricultural Sciences,2014(1): 100 - 104 .
    [10] 程华,邓新建.气候变化对若羌红枣品质与产量的影响[J].现代农业科技,2009(14): 271 .
    [11] 黄玖君,吉春容,李大武,等.且末红枣冬季冻害成因分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(1):63-68.

    HUANG Jiujun,JI Chunrong,LI Dawu,et al.Analysis of freezing injury on jujube in Qiemo in winter[J].Desert and Oasis Meterology 2015,9(1):63-68.
    [12] 李博,李青,陈红梅.阿克苏地区红枣生产技术效率及其影响因素分析[J].北方园艺,2016(7): 181 - 185 .

    LI Bo,LI Qing,CHEN Hongmei.Tehnical efficiency and influencing factor of red jujube in Aksu[J].Northern Horticculture,2016(7): 181 - 185 .
    [13] LIU Y J,QIN Y,GE Q S.Spatiotemporal differentiation of changes in maize phenology in China from 1981 to 2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2019,29(3): 351 - 362 . doi: 10.1007/s11442-019-1602-5
    [14] MANN H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3): 245 - 259 . doi: 10.2307/1907187
    [15] KENDALL M G.Rank correlation methods[M].4th Edition.London:Charles Griffin,1975.
    [16] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007.
    [17] 姚军强,毛炜峄,陈静,等.新疆气候“湿干转折”的信号和影响探讨[J].地理学报,2021,76(1): 57 - 72 .

    YAO Junqiang,MAO Weiyi,CHENG Jing,et al.Singal and impact of wet-to-dry shift over Xinjiang,China[J].Acta Geographica Sinca,2021,76(1): 57 - 72 .
    [18] 张亚新,刘海蓉,李茂春,等.阿克苏地区枣树冻害类型及主要气象因子的影响分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2009,3(6): 43 - 46 .

    ZHANG Yaxin,LIU Hairong,LI Maochun,et al.Types of freezing Injury to jujube and influence of climate factors in Akesu Area[J].Desert and Oasis Meterology,2009,3(6): 43 - 46 .
    [19] 李景林,张山清,普宗朝.近50 a新疆气温精细化时空变化分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(2): 228 - 237 .

    LI Jingling,ZHANG Shanqing,PU Zongchao.Spatinal-temporal varition of sesonal and annual air temperature in Xinjiang during 1961-2010[J].Arid Land Georaphy,2013,36(2): 228 - 237 .
    [20] 普宗朝,张山清,李景林.近50 a新疆≥0 °C持续日数和积温时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(5): 781 - 788 .

    PU Zongchao,ZHANG Shanqing,LI Jingling.Spatiotemporal change of duration and accumulated temprature of temprature ≥0 °C in Xinjiang in Recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(5): 781 - 788 .
    [21] 段晓凤,戴小笠,张玉兰,等.中宁县影响红枣产量的主要农业气象灾害分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2013(5): 136 - 141 . doi: 10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2013.05.023

    DUAN Xiaofeng,DAI Xiaoli,ZHANG Yulan,et al.The analysis of main agro-meteoroligical disasters affecting on the productivity of red jujube at Zhnonning County[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2013(5): 136 - 141 . doi: 10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2013.05.023
  • 加载中
图(11)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  18
  • HTML全文浏览量:  3
  • PDF下载量:  10
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-09-05
  • 修回日期:  2022-12-14
  • 出版日期:  2023-08-20

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回