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北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

贵州省黔中城市群耕地非农化与非粮化空间格局特征分析

Spatial pattern characteristics analysis of non-agriculture and non-grain production in cultivated land of central urban agglomeration in Guizhou Province

  • 摘要: 基于30 m分辨率土地覆盖动态产品数据,综合运用耕地丰度模型、变化速率模型、重心迁移模型、标准差椭圆模型和空间自相关模型,定量分析黔中地区耕地非农化与非粮化的空间分布格局、时空迁移路径及空间聚集特征;同时结合人口、GDP、地形等因子,完成黔中城市群耕地非农化与非粮化驱动因子识别。结果表明:①2011—2021年贵州省黔中城市群耕地的空间分布存在显著的不平衡性,耕地丰富区集中在黔中地区的中部和北部;②2011—2021年黔中地区耕地非农化与非粮化速率均存在明显的空间分异,10年间耕地非农化呈现加速再放缓的趋势,而耕地非粮化则表现出持续的缓慢增长;③2011—2021年黔中城市群耕地非农化重心有向东南方向偏移的趋势,耕地非粮化重心向北方偏移的趋势;④2011—2021年黔中地区耕地非农化空间集聚性总体上呈增强趋势,其中高−高聚集区和低−低聚集区分别集中在北部和中部,非粮化空间集聚性总体上呈离散趋势,高−高聚集区和低−低聚集区分别集中在西部和中部;⑤从驱动因子来看,耕地非农化在2011—2016年主要受年末常住人口和公共预算支出因素驱动,2016—2021年则主要受公共预算收入与地区生产总值因素驱动,而非粮化现象在研究期内未发现与所选因子存在显著相关关系。

     

    Abstract: Based on 30 m resolution land cover dynamic product data, a comprehensive methodology was employed, combining cultivated land abundance model, change rate model, gravity center migration model, standard deviation ellipse models, and spatial autocorrelation model, to quantitatively reveal their spatial distribution patterns, spatial-temporal migration pathways, and clustering characteristics of cultivated land non-agriculture and non-grain production in central Guizhou region.Furthermore, factors such as population, GDP, and topography were integrated to identify driving factors behind cultivated land non-agriculture and non-grain production within central Guizhou urban agglomeration.Results indicated that, ①from 2011 to 2021, cultivated land spatial distribution in central Guizhou urban agglomeration exhibited significant imbalance, with abundant cultivated land concentrated in central and northern parts of region.② From 2011 to 2021, both rates of non-agriculture and non-grain production of cultivated land in central Guizhou region exhibited significant spatial variation.Non-agriculture increased initially and then slowed, while non-grain production showed a persistent, gradual increase over decade.③ From 2011 to 2021, spatial gravity center of non-agriculture in central Guizhou urban agglomeration shifted toward the southeast, while that of non-grain production moved northward.④ From 2011 to 2021, spatial clustering of non-agriculture generally intensified, with high-high and low-low clustering zones located in north and center areas, respectively.In contrast, spatial clustering pattern of non-grain production showed a dispersed trend, with high-high and low-low clustering zones concentrated in west and center, respectively.⑤ Regarding driving factors, non-agriculture cultivated land was primarily driven by year-end resident population and public budget expenditure from 2011 to 2016, and public budget revenue and regional GDP became main driving factors from 2016 to 2021.No significant correlation between non-agriculture cultivated land and selected factors was observed throughout the study periodduring study period.

     

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