中国农业机械化科学研究院集团有限公司 主管

北京卓众出版有限公司 主办

青岛市生猪价格波动规律及成因

Law and Causes of Pig Price Fluctuation in Qingdao City

  • 摘要: 为探究青岛市生猪产业的发展趋势,利用季节调整、H-P滤波等定量方法分析青岛市近10年的生猪价格波动特征,利用多元回归模型及1阶AR(1)模型实证分析供需两大方面因素对生猪价格波动产生的影响。结果表明,青岛市生猪价格波动呈现明显的周期性和季节性,主要受供给层面的影响,同时青岛市2022年下半年生猪价格会出现阶段性反弹,但总体幅度不会太大,并且在未来几年生猪价格将恢复正常,并继续升高。

     

    Abstract: To explore development trend of Qingdao pig industry, seasonal adjustment and H-P filtering were used to analyze characteristics of pig price fluctuations in Qingdao in the past ten years. A multiple regression model and a first-order AR(1)model were also used to analyze empirically influence of two major factors, supply and demand, on fluctuation of pig prices and degree of influence. Results showed that pig price fluctuation in Qingdao was obviously cyclical and seasonal, and was mainly influenced by supply side, while pig price in Qingdao would rebound in the second half of 2022, but overall magnitude was not too large, and pig price would return to normal and continue to rise in next few years.

     

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