Coordinated Development of E-commerce Logistics of Agricultural Products Based on System Dynamics
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摘要:
在对陕西省农产品电商与物流深入调查的基础上，借助系统动力学原理对其进行深入的内部动力机制分析与仿真模拟，构建了农产品电商与物流协调发展模型，研究农村电商与物流协调发展的途径，并利用陕西省2015—2020年相关数据进行实证仿真分析，对比不同因素对陕西省农产品电商与物流协调发展的影响程度，提出了陕西省农产品电商与物流协调发展的有效策略与方法，为促进陕西省农产品电商与物流稳定持续发展提供借鉴。
Abstract:Based on in-depth investigation of agricultural product e-commerce and logistics in Shaanxi Province, internal dynamic mechanism was analyzed and simulated by means of system dynamics principle, coordinated development model of agricultural product e-commerce and logistics was established, and way of coordinated development of rural e-commerce and logistics was studied．Based on relevant data of Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2020, empirical simulation analysis was conducted, impact of different factors on coordinated development of agricultural product e-commerce and logistics in Shaanxi Province was compared, and effective strategies and methods were put forward for coordinated development of agricultural product e-commerce and logistics in Shaanxi Province, providing reference for promoting stable and sustainable development of agricultural product e-commerce and logistics in Shaanxi Province．
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Keywords:
- system dynamics /
- agricultural products /
- e-commerce /
- logistics
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图 1 陕西省农产品电商发展子系统因果关系
Figure 1. Causal relationship of agricultural e-commerce development subsystem in Shaanxi Province
图 2 陕西省农产品物流发展子系统因果关系
Figure 2. Causal relationship of agricultural product logistics development subsystem in Shaanxi Province
图 3 陕西省农产品电商与物流协调发展系统动力学模型
Figure 3. System dynamics model of coordinated development of e-commerce and logistics of agricultural products in Shaanxi Province
图 4 陕西省农产品电商与物流协调度预测趋势
Figure 4. Forecast trend of coordinated development of e-commerce and logistics of agricultural products in Shaanxi Province
表 1 陕西省农产品电商子系统与物流子系统间的协调度
Table 1. Coordination degree between e-commerce subsystem and logistics subsystem of agricultural products in Shaanxi Province
年份 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 协调度C 0.3543 0.3792 0.4125 0.4441 0.4551 0.4793 
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表 2 协调度预测统计
Table 2. Coordination degree prediction statistics
年份 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 协调度 0.5655 0.5979 0.6132 0.6132 0.6695
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